Sunday, October 8, 2017

Build on a Solid Core and Keep Your Superstar

                A group led by Derek Jeter just purchased the Miami Marlins.  The face of that franchise, rightfielder Giancarlo Stanton, has requested to be traded if the intention is going to be a full tear-down and rebuild.  My question is: why would they?  This is a team with a very strong youth core starting with arguably the best outfield in baseball.  Beyond that, they have only three players that will be free agents this offseason and only five more after next season.
                Let’s start with Stanton.  At only 27, he is coming off a 2017 season where he led all MLB hitters in home runs (59) and RBI (132).  He also led the NL in slugging percentage (.631) and was 2nd in runs scored (123).  He sits firmly in what is likely to be a two-horse race for the NL MVP with Nolan Arenado of the Rockies.  Beyond that, he has established himself as one of the most feared hitters in this generation.
                Accompanying Stanton in the outfield are two budding young superstars, Marcell Ozuna (26) and Christian Yelich (25).  Ozuna will also garner votes for MVP, though his numbers are greatly overshadowed by Stanton’s.  He was tied for 3rd in the NL in home runs (37), 3rd in RBI (124), 6th in batting average (.312), and 9th in slugging (.548). Yelich was one of only 8 NL hitters to score 100 runs, due in large part to Stanton and Ozuna hitting behind him.  He also plays an above-average centerfield in one of the more difficult outfields in the league.
                It’s not just the outfield that is talented and infused with youth.  Dee Gordon might be the most prototypical leadoff hitter in baseball.  The 29-year-old second baseman led the MLB in stolen bases (60), collected 201 hits (T-2nd NL), and tallied 9 triples (T-3rd NL).  JT Realmuto (26) has very quietly established himself as one of the best young catchers in the game.  Among MLB catchers, he ranked near the top in runs scored (68, 2nd), hits (148, 2nd), doubles (31, 2nd), triples (5, 1st), RBI (65, 6th), batting average (.278, 2nd), and slugging (.451, 3rd).  He also played in more games and had more at bats than any other catcher.  Justin Bour, a former Rule 5 pick, is coming off a strong season where he hit .289 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI despite missing all of August with an oblique strain.
                There are definitely some areas that will need some addressing in the offseason.  Third baseman Martin Prado and prospect shortstop JT Riddle are both coming off surgeries.  Prado is the only projected starting position player over the age of 30.  Miami is one of the few teams that could be in the market to add at shortstop.  The pitching will also need some addressing.  Edinson Volquez went down in August and had to undergo Tommy John surgery.  He may not play in 2018.  Dan Straily and Jose Urena had strong years.  Wei-Yin Chen had some elbow issues that limited him to nine games and only five starts.  He holds a player option for 2018.  AJ Ramos was traded midseason, so the Marlins are without an established closer.  They have plenty of young bullpen arms available, so it is possible that they could find someone to fill that void from within.

                On a team that has all eight positional starters under control for at least another two seasons and all but one under the age of 30, a complete rebuild seems like a foolish endeavor.  They will definitely need to address the pitching rotation and shore up behind some players coming off major injuries, but this team is only a couple of pieces away from building a playoff contender.  If the Marlins ownership takes what they have and builds on it, watch out for Miami in 2018 and for years to come.