The Little Things That Matter

With a very surprise matchup in the ALCS this year, it is anyone’s guess who will win the American League Pennant in 2014.  Obviously, Eric Hosmer and Nelson Cruz are going to have to come through big as the offensive catalysts for their respective teams.  Barring a major meltdown from one of the teams, a trip to the World Series is going to come down to which team steps up in the key situations.  Here are two small-scale matchups that could have a big influence in deciding the AL Champion.

Royals bullpen VS Orioles long balls

Obviously, the quickest way for a bullpen to blow a lead late in a game is to give up an untimely home run.  The Orioles were the only team in baseball to hit over 200 home runs this season.  Their 211 dingers were trailed by the second place Colorado Rockies and their Coors Field-aided 173.  Nelson Cruz was the only player in baseball to reach the 40-HR mark.

During the regular season, the Royals bullpen gave up the fewest home runs in the American League.  Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera both pitched over 70 innings without giving up a home run.  No Kansas City reliever on the ALCS roster gave up more than three.  In order to hold a lead and get the ball to their All-Star closer, Greg Holland, the Royals bullpen need to keep the Orioles in the ball park.

Orioles catchers VS Royals base-stealers

We already saw the Royals steal a playoff-record seven bases during the Wild Card matchup with Oakland.  They also stole five bases without getting caught during the Division Series against the Angels.  Their 153 steals during the regular season were tops in the Majors by a wide margin and they were caught less than 20% of their attempts.

In order to slow down the Kansas City running game, the Orioles may use Caleb Joseph in a greater capacity, especially in late-game situations.  During the season, Joseph was 2^nd in the AL (min. 50 games at catcher) throwing out 40.4% of potential base stealers.  Between San Diego and Baltimore, starter Nick Hundley threw out only 5 of 36 base stealers (13.9%) which is well below the league average of 27%.  We might see Buck Showalter swallow the slight bump in offense that Hundley brings in order for Joseph to police the bases.

This is going to be an exciting matchup.  Both teams are coming in from an unlikely sweep.  Both are riding a large wave of momentum.  Among the two teams, only the 2012 Orioles have even reached the playoffs in the new millennium.  This has all the makings of a series that baseball fans will remember for many years to come.