"So we signed the reigning Home Run Champ. What's next?"

The Mariners blew away expectations and ended up one game short of the playoffs in 2014.  Now they have locked up their Gold Glove third baseman long-term and signed the Major League home run leader to hold down their cleanup spot.  With many of their key pieces in place, a lot of questions have been swirling about what the next move for the Mariners front office should be.  They landed Nelson Cruz without giving up a starter (as they would if they traded for Cespedes, Kemp, or Upton), which addressed the most glaring need this offseason.  We may see another big splash from Jack Z, especially with the Winter Meetings taking place next week, but there are a few value moves that I think would be good fits for Seattle.

Mark Trumbo

After being the main piece of one of the marquee deals last winter, Trumbo missed a large portion of the season with a foot injury.  His future in Arizona is questionable, mostly due to his sub-par defense in the outfield.  Trumbo projected to start at a corner outfield position, but his defensive ability is much higher at first base.  Obviously, he’s not going to play much at first for the D’backs because Paul Goldschmidt is a perennial MVP candidate.  With the addition of Yasmany Tomas, Arizona has five other outfielders that are very capable to be starters (Tomas, Pollack, Peralta, Ross, Inciarte) and all of them are stronger defenders that Trumbo.

In Seattle, Trumbo would be a good platoon candidate at first base with Logan Morrison and could also DH with Nelson Cruz in right field.  He fits the mold of the right-handed power bat that the Mariners have been looking for.  The trade situation is also a good fit because Seattle has a wealth of good, young relievers and Arizona is in need of bullpen help.  Trumbo is the most expensive on this list, but still for good value.  He is in his first arbitration year after making $4.8 million last season.

Emilio Bonifacio

Obviously, Bonifacio is not a power bat as I mentioned the Mariners have been looking for.  However, the switch-hitter is strong against left-handed pitching and would be a good addition to the team that was last in the AL in OPS vs lefties (.636) in 2014.  Between the Cubs and Braves, Bonifacio posted a .365/.411/.548 slash line and hit all three of his home runs against southpaws.  He would also bring a speed element that the Mariners only possess with James Jones and less so with Austin Jackson.  With those upsides, Bonifacio is a free agent that has not made more than $2.6 million in a season.

Ryan Doumit

Doumit is also a switch hitter that is balanced throughout his career against right- and left-handed pitchers.  Despite lackluster defensive abilities at any of his positions, he can play catcher, first base, and outfield, which are all positions where the Mariners need more depth.  The former 2^nd round pick is from Moses Lake, WA and would be a good candidate to return to his home state on an incentive-laden contract or potentially as a minor league non-roster invitee.

Gaby Sanchez

After being designated for assignment and then non-tendered by the Pirates this week, Sanchez is now a free agent that was only under contract for $2.3 million last year.  A career .291 hitter vs left-handers, he has served as a solid platoon partner for Ike Davis, Justin Morneau, and Garrett Jones in his 2.5 years in Pittsburgh.  He would be a very capable platoon candidate for Logan Morrison.

Franklin Gutierrez

I know that few Mariners fans will be excited by this notion, but bringing Gutierrez back as a non-roster invitee would be a low-risk, high-reward move.  When healthy, Seattle has seen the strong abilities, especially defensively, that earned him the nickname “Death to Flying Things.”  He took the last year off to focus on getting healthy.  I think it is well worth the chance to let him show if the rest paid off and see if he can return to his pre-illness form when he hit .335/.409/.555 against left-handers in 2009.

DJ Peterson

I know he is not a move that needs to be made, but Peterson should be noted here because he could change the roster landscape depending on his performance in Spring Training and in AAA this year.  He is a right-handed power hitter, just like the Mariners need, that can play first base and DH.  Between High-A and AA last year, Peterson combined for a .295 average, 31 home runs, and 111 runs batted in.  As of today, Peterson is projected to reach the big league club by mid-season, which would make the Mariners only need to fill that roster spot for half of the season.  This gives the Seattle front office even more incentive to go after a low-risk, high-reward move in case Peterson breaks out and forces his call-up earlier than projected.

Already this offseason, the Mariners have shown a willingness to pull the trigger on deals that fill important roster holes.  Mariners fans who were not optimistic after the one-game deficit to finish the season, have even more reason to hopefully look to the future with Cano, Cruz, and Seager powering the lineup for the next four seasons.  Now the offseason comes down to the little moves that pay off and give the Mariners the bump they need to play in October in 2015.

The Little Things That Matter

With a very surprise matchup in the ALCS this year, it is anyone’s guess who will win the American League Pennant in 2014.  Obviously, Eric Hosmer and Nelson Cruz are going to have to come through big as the offensive catalysts for their respective teams.  Barring a major meltdown from one of the teams, a trip to the World Series is going to come down to which team steps up in the key situations.  Here are two small-scale matchups that could have a big influence in deciding the AL Champion.

Royals bullpen VS Orioles long balls

Obviously, the quickest way for a bullpen to blow a lead late in a game is to give up an untimely home run.  The Orioles were the only team in baseball to hit over 200 home runs this season.  Their 211 dingers were trailed by the second place Colorado Rockies and their Coors Field-aided 173.  Nelson Cruz was the only player in baseball to reach the 40-HR mark.

During the regular season, the Royals bullpen gave up the fewest home runs in the American League.  Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera both pitched over 70 innings without giving up a home run.  No Kansas City reliever on the ALCS roster gave up more than three.  In order to hold a lead and get the ball to their All-Star closer, Greg Holland, the Royals bullpen need to keep the Orioles in the ball park.

Orioles catchers VS Royals base-stealers

We already saw the Royals steal a playoff-record seven bases during the Wild Card matchup with Oakland.  They also stole five bases without getting caught during the Division Series against the Angels.  Their 153 steals during the regular season were tops in the Majors by a wide margin and they were caught less than 20% of their attempts.

In order to slow down the Kansas City running game, the Orioles may use Caleb Joseph in a greater capacity, especially in late-game situations.  During the season, Joseph was 2^nd in the AL (min. 50 games at catcher) throwing out 40.4% of potential base stealers.  Between San Diego and Baltimore, starter Nick Hundley threw out only 5 of 36 base stealers (13.9%) which is well below the league average of 27%.  We might see Buck Showalter swallow the slight bump in offense that Hundley brings in order for Joseph to police the bases.

This is going to be an exciting matchup.  Both teams are coming in from an unlikely sweep.  Both are riding a large wave of momentum.  Among the two teams, only the 2012 Orioles have even reached the playoffs in the new millennium.  This has all the makings of a series that baseball fans will remember for many years to come.

Look into my Crystal Ball...

In response to the predictions from the MLB.com staff that showed very little difference of opinion, I decided someone needs to provide a different point of view.  Without my mind control abilities perfected, I guess I will have to just write my own predictions.

The reigning champs are still the team to beat in the East.  They will get a strong fight from both the Rays and the Orioles.  Even with their improved rotation, the Yankees have too many injury questions and their infield is a very big question mark.  In the end, Tampa Bay will take the division.  Their pitching is too deep and their offense will be even better with a full year from Wil Myers.

The Tigers are the best team in the Central, especially with the addition of Ian Kinsler at second base and Joe Nathan as the closer.  They too have a tough fight coming up with the Royals and the Indians.  In this one, the Tigers will still ride Miguel Cabrera’s bat and their trio of aces – Verlander, Scherzer, and Sanchez – to the title.

The AL West is a toss-up.  The Athletics were the popular choice to three-peat until they lost Parker to Tommy John surgery and Griffin has questions about his elbow.  The Rangers brought in Fielder and Choo to bolster an already potent offense, but their roster has also been brutalized by injuries this spring, especially their starting rotation.  The Angels and Mariners both made key moves that will put them squarely in the race.  The division will come down to how well each team play against each other, but more importantly how they play against the Astros.  The youngest team in baseball has a lot of talent coming through the pipeline and will cause a stir in the West, though they are still unlikely to compete themselves.  All that said, the Rangers have too much offense and will keep getting better as they get players back from injuries.

In the Wild Card, the Royals will take the top spot behind their stellar defense and strong core of young players.  The last spot will be a fight, but the Orioles will come out on top.  Chris Davis will make a strong push for MVP and they will see big production from their new faces: Nelson Cruz, David Lough, Ubaldo Jimenez, and prospect Jonathan Schoop.

The Nationals are the far and away favorite in the NL East now that the Braves’ rotation has been decimated by injuries.  Atlanta will struggle to keep in the Wild Card hunt.

Despite the recent winning ways from the Cardinals, this year the Central is wide open and the title will end up in Cincinnati.  The Reds are the most underrated team in baseball and will have a top-5 starting rotation for the 3^rd year in a row.

The NL West may be the best division in baseball top to bottom.  All five teams should be competitive for a playoff spot.  However, the Dodgers are still going to run away with the division while Clayton Kershaw returns from his early season injury to win another ERA title.

In a true battle royale, the Wild Card is going to be a wild ride.  There could be another play-in to the Wild Card Game with how many competitive teams in the race.  In the end, it will come down to a matchup of the two teams that have won the last four NL Pennants: the Giants and the Cardinals.

Wild Card:

Royals beat Orioles

Giants beat Cardinals

Division Series:

Tigers beat Royals

Rays beat Rangers

Dodgers beat Giants

Reds beat Nationals

Championship Series:

Tigers beat Rays

Reds beat Dodgers

World Series:

Reds beat Tigers

The Undervalued Squad

There has been word that Bronson Arroyo is very upset that he has not received a formal offer this late in the offseason.  This is very understandable because his statistics have been nothing but consistent throughout his career.  I think the primary reason Arroyo is getting left out of discussions is because he pitched for one of the most underrated staffs in baseball with the Reds.  Not only him, but all of the pitchers in Cincinnati are terribly underrated.

In the last two seasons, the Reds have had six different starting pitchers make all but seven of the team’s starts.  They ranked 3^rd in the majors in starter ERA with 3.43 in 2013 and 5^th with 3.64 in 2012.  Aside from Arroyo, no pitcher in Cincinnati has yet reached his 28^th birthday.  They got great results from Tony Cingrani in his first taste of the majors in 2013, which has made Arroyo expendable in his free agent year.

Here is a quick rundown of how effective each starter has been in recent years:

·         Bronson Arroyo (36 years old):

o   Arroyo has rattled off 200+ innings in seven of his eight years in Cincinnati with the only exception being 199 innings in 2011. He also has had an ERA under 4.00 in four of his last five season (the exception, again, being 5.07 in 2011).  In 2013, Arroyo commanded a 1.15 WHIP which was good for 22^nd in baseball.  The one big knock on his season was an NL-worst 32 home runs allowed.

·         Homer Bailey (27):

o   Bailey has been the center of some offseason news with the possibility of the Reds locking him up long-term.  With the retirement of Roy Halladay this offseason, Bailey is one of only three active pitchers (Verlander, Buehrle) with two career no-hitters with his coming in each of the least two seasons.  His WHIP was better than Arroyo’s at 1.12 (16^th) and he had a career-high 8.57 K/9.

·         Tony Cingrani (24):

o   Cingrani lived up to expectations in limited time in 2013.  After being the 5^th top left-handed pitching prospect (#57 overall) in 2012, Cingrani was given an opportunity to start in place of the injured Johnny Cueto.  He posted a 2.77 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .192 BA against as a starter.  In 104 2/3 total innings, Cingrani recorded 120 strikeouts.  With Arroyo a free agent, Cingrani looks to be the heavy favorite to round out the Reds rotation in 2014.

·         Johnny Cueto (27):

o   Cueto has long been my vote for the most underrated player in baseball.  He has finished the past three seasons with a sub-3.00.  The only qualifying pitcher to complete this feat is Clayton Kershaw.  Cueto has also finished each of those three seasons with a sub-1.20 WHIP.  He did have injuries limit him to 11 starts in 2013.  When healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball even though he is often not even regarded as the ace on his own team.

·         Mat Latos (26):

o   Latos was brought over from San Diego to be the ace in Cincinnati and have gotten results on a high level.  In his two seasons with the Reds, Latos has recorded 14 wins, 200+ innings, and a sub-3.50 ERA each year.  He has also had over 180 strikeouts in each of his four full seasons.  Despite Cueto’s injury issues, Latos has kept a solid force at the top of the rotation in Cincinnati.

·         Mike Leake (26):

o   Leake actually had the highest WHIP of any starter on the Reds last season.  That mark was a whopping 1.25 and ranked 48^th among qualifying starters.  He also put up a 3.37 ERA and pitched 192.1 innings.  Those are pretty strong numbers for a 4^th or 5^th starter.

So with this level of success, the Cincinnati Reds rotation is unarguably one of the best in baseball.  All four qualifying starters had ERA under 4.00 and ranked in the top 50 in WHIP.  The outlook in Cincinnati is also very positive because all five returning starters are still very young.  Not only is their rotation very effective now, but they could be one of the top rotations for the next five years or more.  Other teams need to take note that the Reds are going to stay contenders for a long time.