Monday, November 26, 2012

Setting the Table in the NL West

The Giants are World Champions again.  They won the National League West by eight games over the Los Angeles Dodgers after both teams made key moves midseason.  The Giants brought in Marco Scutaro from the Rockies and Hunter Pence from the Phillies.  The Dodgers made the blockbuster trade with Boston for Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto.  The Dodgers were hit with injuries to Matt Kemp, Dee Gordon, and Chad Billingsley among others that made it increasingly more difficult to maintain the torrid pace they had to start the season 30-13 and caused a slide with 11 losses in 12 games in late July that had them only 7 games over .500 at the All Star Break.  The Giants moves worked out perfectly with Scutaro winning NLCS MVP and Pence providing clutch hits and keeping morale high throughout their playoff run.  Amazingly enough, the Giants won it all and may have the most questions of any team heading into the offseason.  The Diamondbacks began the season still without Stephen Drew – still fighting his way back from a broken ankle – and ended up moving him to Oakland at the trade deadline.  In an up and down season, Arizona ended right in the middle, at an even 81-81.  San Diego saw a lot of improvement in their youth movement. Chase Headley led the NL in RBI with 115 and finish fifth in MVP voting to go with a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger.  Yasmani Grandal burst onto the major league circuit with two homers in his first major league game, but he is facing a 50-game drug suspension going into 2013.  The Padres have even more young talent that will get a shot at the major league roster this year including AFL stars Kevin Quackenbush and Rymer Liriano.  The Rockies had more key injuries this year to Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, and Dexter Fowler.  They won only seven games in the entire month of July and also had 8-game and 9-game losing streaks (neither were in July).  Despite knocking on the door to 100 losses (98), Colorado saw great promise in rookie catcher Wilin Rosario (28 home runs) and first baseman/outfielder Tyler Colvin (55 extra-base hits).

Diamondbacks
In 2012, there were eight different players that started games hitting first for the Diamondbacks.  Willie Bloomquist, who began the season filling in for the injured Stephen Drew, took the most AB at leadoff, but is not slated to be a starter in 2013.  Gerardo Parra had the second-most and is in a position battle with Jason Kubel to start in left.  Parra hit .273/.335/.392 over the season, but those numbers were .307/.374/.464 from the leadoff spot.  Aaron Hill is a virtual lock at second base and led the team with a .302 batting average, but spent most of last season and likely will remain next season in the second spot of the order.  Scutaro would be a free agent worth looking at for Arizona.  The shortstop position is wide open and they could use another top of the order bat.  The Diamondbacks may also be looking to upgrade their outfield, especially if they make good on the Justin Upton trade rumors.  They could be in the market for BJ Upton as well as the prototypical leadoff hitters of Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino, or Angel Pagan.

Dodgers
Los Angeles made a lot of noise after their sale to Magic Johnson and his ownership group, and I would be surprised to see that to trend any differently this offseason.  They did pick up Carl Crawford in the blockbuster deal with Boston at the trade deadline.  He is still coming off the wrist injury that limited him to 31 games in 2012, though he did hit .282 with 56 total bases.  The expectation for Dee Gordon going into 2012 was to be the leadoff hitter of the future and a fixture at shortstop for the Dodgers.  Going into 2013, he may not have a starting job and could be used as a trade piece this winter thanks to the thumb injury that required mid-season surgery and the trade for Hanley Ramirez.  Depending on Crawford's health, Ramirez may be used at leadoff or the Dodgers may make a move for some insurance.  They may take a look at a player like Endy Chavez or Nate McLouth for a low-cost option that provides depth in the outfield and at the top of the order.  There will likely be a big move by the Dodgers this winter, but it will probably at a different spot in the order.

Giants
After winning their second World Series in three seasons, the Giants have some big questions going into 2013.  Angel Pagan is gone.  Marco Scutaro is gone.  Melky Cabrera is gone.  Gregor Blanco spent some time hitting leadoff, but only hit .244 on the season.  The Giants' depth chart shows no one at second base and Blanco starting in both left and center.  I expect to see a flurry of moves refilling these positions.  Re-signing Scutaro would be a very logical move.  He is now a fan favorite after hitting .362 since coming to San Francisco and winning the NLCS MVP.  They also may look to re-sign Pagan after his impressive season where he set career highs in runs (95), doubles (38), and triples (15 – led majors).  If Pagan signs elsewhere, Bourn or Victorino would be huge additions at the top of this lineup getting on base ahead of Pence, Posey, and the Panda.

Padres
San Diego is another team that has a lot of questions at the top of their order.  They split a lot of time between Chris Denorfia and Will Venable.  Denorfia was most effective at the top at .303/.354/.468, but will likely still be the righty in the right field platoon with Venable.  Cameron Maybin is the biggest speed threat for the Padres, but only hit .171 from the leadoff spot and saw hits stats fall off in most categories from his career highs in 2011.  San Diego will probably not be active in the market for top of the order hitters.  They have a lot of good, young hitters and need some pitching help to get them back in the race.

Rockies
Colorado has a lot of positions that could see movement this offseason.  They had three players that spent 30 games or more in the leadoff role.  Marco Scutaro was shipped to San Francisco midseason and is now a free agent.  Eric Young Jr. had his best season in most categories, but fills the role as backup outfielder and pinch-hitter.  Dexter Fowler had a career year at .300/.389/.474 with 13 HR and 53 RBI (all career highs).  He is the odds-on choice to fill the leadoff role, but had some trouble with injuries in 2012.  If he misses more time, Young would be the most likely replacement both in center field and at the top of the order.  Colorado needs pitching help badly, so big lineup moves are less likely unless position players are being traded for pitchers.

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