Saturday, November 24, 2012

Setting the Table in the NL East


The National League East caught a lot of people by surprise this year and had some great storylines throughout the season.  First and foremost, the Nationals had the best record in baseball with 98 wins and made an appearance in the playoffs for the first time in the Nationals/Expos franchise.  The Braves finished second and had a commanding lead in the wild card race, but with the institution of the second wild card team had to face off with the Cardinals in the one-game playoff. Their six-game lead fell by the wayside after a 6-3 loss to St. Louis.  The Phillies struggled mightily in the first half of the season (37-50), but managed to rally back to end the season .500 despite trading Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence at the deadline.  The Mets had a few feel-good stories throughout the season.  Johan Santana threw the first no-hitter in team history and R.A. Dickey had back-to-back one-hitters en route to winning the NL Cy Young Award.  The injury bug was alive and well in Queens, however, and the Mets only managed a fourth-place finish.  The Marlins were the biggest letdown in baseball after opening their new stadium and making big headlines by bringing in Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, and Mark Buehrle with their increased revenue and managed their worst record since 1999.  In the past few months, the Marlins have traded away 13 of their 14 highest paid players.  They will be a big storyline to follow this winter to see how they rebound after their severe disappointment in 2012.

Braves
With the loss of Michael Bourn, there is a big hole to fill both in center and at the top of Atlanta's lineup.  The Braves already made a move to bring back Jordan Schafer, who was the main piece in the trade that brought Bourn to Atlanta from Houston. Schafer has blazing speed, but in 2012 only mustered .211/.297/.294 in 104 games for the Astros and may not be ready to take on the leadoff role in 2013.  Martin Prado spent most of 2012 as the 2-hole hitter, but could fit at leadoff with his .300+ BA and .350+ OBP in 4 of his last 5 seasons.  Bourn was a great fit in Atlanta last year and would be the best option to bring back.  Victorino and his .341 career OBP would also fit well in front of the big bats of McCann, Uggla, Freeman, and Heyward.  Nate McLouth also has history in Atlanta and would be a less pricey option.

Marlins
The Marlins went from having two leadoff hitters and big questions elsewhere to having big questions everywhere including the leadoff spot.  They did get Yunel Escobar who spent some time leading off but only hit .216 from that spot.  Adeiny Hechavarria only has 41 MLB games under his belt, but showed leadoff-type numbers in the minors with 209 runs, 18 triples, and 41 steals over three seasons and three levels (A+, AA, and AAA).  Shortly after the trade with Toronto, the Marlins signed Juan Pierre to a one-year deal.  Pierre has hit 17 HR in 13 seasons, but has 591 SB in his career and stole 37 in 44 tries in 2012.  He also hit .346 in the first inning last season.  His most impressive stat may be his career strikeout rate of 17.6 PA/K.  He only has struck out 452 times compared to 451 walks.  At 34, he still has the tools to be a leadoff option on a team that needs one.  Now that so much payroll has been dropped by trading off Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Heath Bell, Reyes, Buehrle, and Johnson, Miami might be looking at making a few more moves this offseason. It remains to be seen what type of caliber of players the Marlins will target, but they had a lot of holes to fill even before this trade.  The Marlins could still be in the market for a high-level table setter, but they now have a solid option in Pierre.

Mets
Going into 2012, the Mets traded Angel Pagan to San Francisco for Andres Torres and reliever Ramon Ramirez.  Pagan won a World Series with the Giants and hit .288/.338/.440.  Torres only hit .230/.327/.337 and lost his leadoff job to Ruben Tejada early in the season.  Tejada performed much better in the spot and was third on the team in average at .289.  Going forward, the Mets have to ask if they are comfortable sticking with the combination of Tejada and Donnie Murphy at the top of the order.  If they decide to go out into the market for an upgrade, the most likely position would be a replacement in center for Torres.  They may look to bring back Pagan if the Giants decide to go elsewhere or maybe push up for Victorino.

Nationals
Washington had a fantastic season in 2012 with the most wins in the MLB (98) and not only their first division title, but their first playoff baseball of any kind.  This is even more remarkable when you factor in the injuries and lineup changes that they rolled with during the season. Mike Morse started the season on the DL.  Ryan Zimmerman hit the DL with a shoulder injury that he is having surgery on this offseason and also missed some time with back ailments.  Wilson Ramos saw his season end on May 13 with a torn ACL.  Jayson Werth had a wrist injury that kept him out of the lineup.  Ian Desmond missed some time with injury.  The top spot of the Nationals order also so a lot of changing and rolling with the punches.  There were four players that spent at least 25 games hitting first.  Ian Desmond was leading off to begin the season and hit .272 at the spot, but was moved to the 6-hole and bumped up to .316/.362/.532.  Steve Lombardozzi splashed onto the scene filling in for Morse, Werth, and Zimmerman.  Lombo played a team-high 58 games and put up a solid .273/.312/.367 batting first, but he will likely go back to his role of super-utility in 2013.  The Nationals found gold when the put Jayson Werth at the top.  With a career .362 OBP, Werth hit .309/.388/.450 setting the table for Harper, Zimmerman, Laroche and Morse.  Werth does not have the speed factor that is typical of a leadoff hitter, but he does steal bases with 86.7% efficiency in his career.  Even so, the Nationals may be in the market for a more typical leadoff hitter like Bourn, Victorino, or Pagan.

Phillies
Two big free agents are in the leadoff hitter pool that began 2012 in Philadelphia.  With Victorino and Juan Pierre out, the job falls exclusively on Jimmy Rollins.  The 2007 MVP has seen a decline in his numbers after that year, but his 2012 season saw some of his best numbers since.  J-Roll was 30 for 35 in SB and was back up to 23 HR and 102 runs (each most since 2007).  Rollins is still a premier leadoff man even going into his 34-year-old season.  The big fish the Phillies are trying to land this winter is BJ Upton.  They have not been quite about their very active pursuit to bring his right-handed power bat in to their lineup that is basically devoid of right-handed power.  Upton will likely fit better in the 3-hole, but has the speed to be used at leadoff.  The Phillies have also been noted as a main contender for Bourn.  It remains to be seen if they will try to land Bourn and Upton, but those would be two potent offensive additions to an aging lineup.  Another free agent to watch would be the return of Victorino.  It is still unknown if they would go after him or if he would want to come back to the team that sent him off at the deadline, but Philly has seen him effective in the leadoff spot before.

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