Making Moves for Table Setters

With all the free agents this offseason there are some positions with more options than others.  There are not many marquee options in the infield, especially up the middle.  However, there is a rich crop of potential top-of-the-order talent out there.  The biggest name on this list is definitely Michael Bourn.  He has been one of the game’s elite leadoff hitters for the past four years and is among the top five free agents on the market.  Bourn will garner a lot of headlines and rumor wire material this winter.  We have already seen a few leadoff men signed this winter.  The Blue Jays worked out the blockbuster trade and then came right back by taking a chance on Melky Cabrera with a two-year contract.  Also shortly after the trade, the Marlins took their newly lightened payroll and signed Juan Pierre to solidify the outfield and top of the order.  Here’s a list of other notable free agents and where they may fit in 2013:

Michael Bourn

Likely Buyers: ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, HOU, MIA, PHI, SF, WAS

As mentioned at the top of this article, Michael Bourn is among the cream of the crop of leadoff hitters.  Bourn has had five straight years of 40+ steals and led the NL in 2009, '10, and '11.  He was also named Wilson Defensive Player of the Year.  The Giants would be a strong statement for repeat by adding Bourn.  Cincinnati and Washington are also already contenders and could be the favorite with the addition of a premier leadoff man.  The Diamondbacks have a lot of space to cover in center as well as a need at leadoff. The Braves, Phillies, and Astros all have history with Bourn and I could see each of them making an offer, though Houston is less likely to throw out that big of a figure.  The Cubs have a curse to reverse and Bourn would be a big first step.  Miami has opened up a ton of salary after their blockbuster deal and now has a hole at leadoff.  They may decide to make another splash this winter.

Shane Victorino

Likely Buyers: ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, NYM, PHI, SF, TB, WAS

Victorino is very similar to Bourn, but a year older and not quite the same level of production.  He will be looked at by a lot of the same teams, but will not command quite the salary.  The Diamondbacks and Cubs would be good fits because I don't expect them to throw around the bigger dollars for Bourn.  A return to Philadelphia would also be a very logical move, though their willingness to trade him last year may soil the waters there.  If the Reds, Giants, Nationals, or Braves don't land Bourn, the Flyin' Hawaiian would be a strong second choice.  San Francisco may opt to bring back Angel Pagan over Victorino.  The Rays and Mets are two teams that I would see to be out of the mix for Bourn, but could manage to put a bid in for Victorino.

Angel Pagan

Likely Buyers: ARI, ATL, CHC, CIN, NYM, SF, WAS

The market for Pagan will likely increase once the big names above him start to thin their suitors.  At 31, Pagan is the eldest of the group, but still put up very good numbers with 95 runs, 38 doubles, and a major-league leading 15 triples (all career highs).  San Francisco seems to be the most likely candidate to sign Pagan after he helped lead the Giants to the title last season.  If the Giants pass or land a bigger name, the Diamondbacks and Cubs would be very good fits.  Also, look for teams that miss out on the bigger moves to take a look at signing Pagan.

BJ Upton

Likely Buyers: ARI, MIA, PHI, TB, TEX

Aside from Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, and Michael Bourn, BJ Upton may be the most coveted free agent on the market this winter.  The elder of the Upton brothers has the speed to be a top of the lineup threat and also has the power to be a middle of the lineup bat.  Philadelphia has been vocal that Upton is at the top of their radar to bring in his right-handed power into a lefty-heavy lineup.  The Diamondbacks may look to him for center if they follow through with moving his younger brother, Justin.  Do not expect Tampa Bay to pass on an opportunity to bring BJ back for a 9th season as a Ray.  Miami, again, could be in the market for a big move now that most of their payroll has been freed up.  Texas also is in the market for a big bat in center if Hamilton signs elsewhere.

Nate McLouth

Likely Buyers: ATL, BAL, BOS, CHC, HOU, LAD, MIA, MIN, SF, TB

McLouth brings a different set of tools in his free agency than a lot of other names on this list.  He was a spark plug for the Orioles after he was signed on June 5.  In Pittsburgh, McLouth had a career year in 2008 26 homers, 46 doubles, 23 steals, 94 RBI, and 113 runs.  He could fit in any of the outfield positions as well as anywhere in the lineup.  There have already been rumblings of the Orioles looking to bring McLouth back to share time in left with Nolan Reimold, who is coming back from neck surgery.  Again, the Giants, Cubs, Braves, and Rays may take a look at McLouth once the bigger names are off the market.  Boston's outfield was decimated by injury last year and McLouth is a very durable player that could provide depth if they opt to use him from the bench.  The Dodgers also could use some added depth behind the oft-injured Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp.  Minnesota may be looking for some outfield help if they move Denard Span or Ben Revere.

Endy Chavez

Likely Buyers: BAL, BOS, LAD

For a team looking for an insurance policy, Endy Chavez has been on his entire career.  Ever since his horrific injury colliding with Yuniesky Betancourt in Seattle, his health has been in question.  Throughout his career, Chavez has been a solid option as a 4th outfielder and speed threat from the bench.  He has the ability to fill in at leadoff in the case of injuries, so look for teams who have injury questions – like the Red Sox and Dodgers – to give Endy Chavez a look this year.

Ichiro Suzuki

Likely Buyers: NYY

The big question around Ichiro is his age.  The former Rookie of the Year and MVP turned 39 last month and has experienced his first two seasons with less than 200 hits in 2011 and 2012.  He did perform well after leaving Seattle for pinstripes, hitting .322 in 67 games.  Despite his age and the trade, he still played in all 162 games and has missed more than five games in only one season (2009).  In the ALCS, Ichiro hit the first of two 2-run homers in the 9th inning of Game 1 that sent the game into extra innings.  The Yankees are the one team that makes the most sense to sign him and it has been reported that he wants to play 2013 in the Bronx.  Other suitors have yet to become known, but the market for Ichiro may begin to grow during the winter.

Marco Scutaro

Likely Buyers: ARI, COL, MIL, MIN, OAK, SF, TB

Marco Scutaro is the number one option available on the shortstop market and the only big name not coming off an injury (Stephen Drew, Alex Gonzalez).  Scutaro is one of the top options at second base as well. He was fantastic in 2012 after the move to San Francisco where he hit .362 and won NLCS MVP with his 14/28 performance at the plate along with 3 doubles and 6 runs.  Scutaro is the one non-outfielder on this list and a very good option for teams needing help in either the first or second spots in the lineup.  San Francisco is the heavy favorite to bring their new fan favorite back for his first full season on the cove.  The A's, Rockies, and Blue Jays may look for some help in the middle of the infield by bringing Scutaro back for a reunion.  Tampa Bay currently shows Ben Zobrist starting at first, second, and shortstop, so obviously they will likely be shopping for someone to lighten his load.  GM Kevin Towers has been clear that the Diamondbacks are in the market for a shortstop.  Minnesota and Milwaukee also have big questions up the middle and could give Scutaro an offer.

Along with the free agents that could bring some top-of-the-lineup production, there are also potential options on the trade market.  The rumor mill has been turning much in Arizona already this winter around the potential deal of Justin Upton, which would have a lot of impact on other deals that may be made in the desert.  We have already seen Bonifacio and Reyes shipped to Toronto in the megadeal with Miami.  Especially with the low level of available middle infielders on the free agent market, there could be some leadoff talent in new uniforms come April.

Shin-Soo Choo

Rumors have already begun about Cleveland's interest in shopping Choo.  He is a five-tool player with surprising power and a cannon for an arm in right.  Choo has the power to hit cleanup and the speed to hit leadoff.  The Yankees would definitely be a suitor with the loss of Swisher.  The Mariners also may look to bring back Choo after sending him to the Indians for Ben Broussard and cash in 2006.  The Diamondbacks could give Choo a look if they move Justin Upton.

Zack Cozart

There have also been rumors surrounding the shortstops in Cincinnati.  Cozart is the more likely option for the Reds to part ways simply because he is 27 compared to the 22-year-old Didi Gregorius.  The Reds have been interested in dealing for Denard Span from Minnesota in the past.  That move would make the most sense this offseason with the Reds needing a leadoff hitter and the Twins needing a shortstop.  The Diamondbacks and Rays may also be interested in making a deal for Cozart or Gregorius.

Coco Crisp

With the addition of Chris Young, there are big questions in the Oakland outfield simply on who the starters will be.  Between Yoenis Cespedes, Young, Seth Smith, and Josh Reddick, Crisp may be the odd man out.  That leaves the A's with a $7 million backup.  He would be another option to swap with Cozart because there is an opening at shortstop in Oakland.  The Braves, Rays, and Phillies also could be in the Crisp market.

Rafael Furcal

With the emergence of Pete Kozma, the St. Louis Cardinals may look to move the injury-prone Furcal.  The same teams hot on the shortstop market (Arizona, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay) may be approaching the Cards about a deal.  

Dee Gordon

The son of Flash is in a very similar situation to Furcal.  Dee Gordon is coming off injury and has stiff competition (Hanley Ramirez) for the starting shortstop job in LA.  Gordon may be more deserving of his father's nickname with 56 steals in only 143 career games over 2011-12.  Arizona would be a great fit for Gordon and has some dominant, young pitching to work into a deal.  Oakland is also in need of a leadoff hitter and a shortstop, so working a deal with the Dodgers to bring in both with one player would make an awful lot of sense.

Denard Span

Both Span and Ben Revere have been mentioned in trade talks.  Each outfielder comes with a similar skill set of defense and speed.  As mentioned above, Cincinnati has tried on previous occasions to pull Span away from the Twin Cities and this could be the offseason to make it happen.  Atlanta, Philadelphia, and San Francisco may also be in the market for Span or Revere, but those moves are strongly contingent on where the free agents may fall.

Setting the Table in the NL West

The Giants are World Champions again.  They won the National League West by eight games over the Los Angeles Dodgers after both teams made key moves midseason.  The Giants brought in Marco Scutaro from the Rockies and Hunter Pence from the Phillies.  The Dodgers made the blockbuster trade with Boston for Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto.  The Dodgers were hit with injuries to Matt Kemp, Dee Gordon, and Chad Billingsley among others that made it increasingly more difficult to maintain the torrid pace they had to start the season 30-13 and caused a slide with 11 losses in 12 games in late July that had them only 7 games over .500 at the All Star Break.  The Giants moves worked out perfectly with Scutaro winning NLCS MVP and Pence providing clutch hits and keeping morale high throughout their playoff run.  Amazingly enough, the Giants won it all and may have the most questions of any team heading into the offseason.  The Diamondbacks began the season still without Stephen Drew – still fighting his way back from a broken ankle – and ended up moving him to Oakland at the trade deadline.  In an up and down season, Arizona ended right in the middle, at an even 81-81.  San Diego saw a lot of improvement in their youth movement. Chase Headley led the NL in RBI with 115 and finish fifth in MVP voting to go with a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger.  Yasmani Grandal burst onto the major league circuit with two homers in his first major league game, but he is facing a 50-game drug suspension going into 2013.  The Padres have even more young talent that will get a shot at the major league roster this year including AFL stars Kevin Quackenbush and Rymer Liriano.  The Rockies had more key injuries this year to Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, and Dexter Fowler.  They won only seven games in the entire month of July and also had 8-game and 9-game losing streaks (neither were in July).  Despite knocking on the door to 100 losses (98), Colorado saw great promise in rookie catcher Wilin Rosario (28 home runs) and first baseman/outfielder Tyler Colvin (55 extra-base hits).

Diamondbacks

In 2012, there were eight different players that started games hitting first for the Diamondbacks.  Willie Bloomquist, who began the season filling in for the injured Stephen Drew, took the most AB at leadoff, but is not slated to be a starter in 2013.  Gerardo Parra had the second-most and is in a position battle with Jason Kubel to start in left.  Parra hit .273/.335/.392 over the season, but those numbers were .307/.374/.464 from the leadoff spot.  Aaron Hill is a virtual lock at second base and led the team with a .302 batting average, but spent most of last season and likely will remain next season in the second spot of the order.  Scutaro would be a free agent worth looking at for Arizona.  The shortstop position is wide open and they could use another top of the order bat.  The Diamondbacks may also be looking to upgrade their outfield, especially if they make good on the Justin Upton trade rumors.  They could be in the market for BJ Upton as well as the prototypical leadoff hitters of Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino, or Angel Pagan.

Dodgers

Los Angeles made a lot of noise after their sale to Magic Johnson and his ownership group, and I would be surprised to see that to trend any differently this offseason.  They did pick up Carl Crawford in the blockbuster deal with Boston at the trade deadline.  He is still coming off the wrist injury that limited him to 31 games in 2012, though he did hit .282 with 56 total bases.  The expectation for Dee Gordon going into 2012 was to be the leadoff hitter of the future and a fixture at shortstop for the Dodgers.  Going into 2013, he may not have a starting job and could be used as a trade piece this winter thanks to the thumb injury that required mid-season surgery and the trade for Hanley Ramirez.  Depending on Crawford's health, Ramirez may be used at leadoff or the Dodgers may make a move for some insurance.  They may take a look at a player like Endy Chavez or Nate McLouth for a low-cost option that provides depth in the outfield and at the top of the order.  There will likely be a big move by the Dodgers this winter, but it will probably at a different spot in the order.

Giants

After winning their second World Series in three seasons, the Giants have some big questions going into 2013.  Angel Pagan is gone.  Marco Scutaro is gone.  Melky Cabrera is gone.  Gregor Blanco spent some time hitting leadoff, but only hit .244 on the season.  The Giants' depth chart shows no one at second base and Blanco starting in both left and center.  I expect to see a flurry of moves refilling these positions.  Re-signing Scutaro would be a very logical move.  He is now a fan favorite after hitting .362 since coming to San Francisco and winning the NLCS MVP.  They also may look to re-sign Pagan after his impressive season where he set career highs in runs (95), doubles (38), and triples (15 – led majors).  If Pagan signs elsewhere, Bourn or Victorino would be huge additions at the top of this lineup getting on base ahead of Pence, Posey, and the Panda.

Padres

San Diego is another team that has a lot of questions at the top of their order.  They split a lot of time between Chris Denorfia and Will Venable.  Denorfia was most effective at the top at .303/.354/.468, but will likely still be the righty in the right field platoon with Venable.  Cameron Maybin is the biggest speed threat for the Padres, but only hit .171 from the leadoff spot and saw hits stats fall off in most categories from his career highs in 2011.  San Diego will probably not be active in the market for top of the order hitters.  They have a lot of good, young hitters and need some pitching help to get them back in the race.

Rockies

Colorado has a lot of positions that could see movement this offseason.  They had three players that spent 30 games or more in the leadoff role.  Marco Scutaro was shipped to San Francisco midseason and is now a free agent.  Eric Young Jr. had his best season in most categories, but fills the role as backup outfielder and pinch-hitter.  Dexter Fowler had a career year at .300/.389/.474 with 13 HR and 53 RBI (all career highs).  He is the odds-on choice to fill the leadoff role, but had some trouble with injuries in 2012.  If he misses more time, Young would be the most likely replacement both in center field and at the top of the order.  Colorado needs pitching help badly, so big lineup moves are less likely unless position players are being traded for pitchers.

Setting the Table in the NL Central

With the Astros leaving for the American League, the National League Central has a new look in 2013.  The Reds had a great season and finished only one game behind Washington for the best record in baseball.  The Reds saw a 2-0 lead disappear in the NLDS against the eventual World Series champion Giants and are returning most of their key players.  The Cardinals finished a distant second in the division and in the wild card, but made it to the postseason under the new wild card rules and got through the Braves and Nationals before losing to the Giants in seven games in the NLCS.  The Brewers had another huge year from Ryan Braun, but lost Prince Fielder to free agency last winter, lost Alex Gonzalez to a torn ACL, and had serious problems with Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford at the back end of their bullpen.  The Pirates were a game ahead of the Reds at the All Star Break and were eyeing their first winning season since 1992 when Barry Bonds led them to their third straight division title.  In the second half, they only managed a record of 31-46 and came four games short of the .500 mark.  The Cubs had another down season, but saw continued production from their young players and could be in position for some key moves this offseason to get back into the race in 2013.

Brewers

Milwaukee made a very quiet move last season that turned into a very capable leadoff option.  Japanese import Norichika Aoki spend two-thirds of his rookie season hitting leadoff and managed .288/.355/.433 with 50 RBI, 81 runs, and 30 SB.  Carlos Gomez and Corey Hart also could be seen at leadoff through speed (37 steals for Gomez) and OBP (Hart has been over .330 in 5 of past 6 seasons), but the job is Aoki's to lose.

Cardinals

The questions about the leadoff spot in St. Louis revolve around Rafael Furcal.  First and foremost is his health.  Furcal suffered a strained ligament in his right elbow and his season ended at the end of August.  There is no plan for surgery, so it will all come down to if he is ready for the start of the season.  The Cardinals may look to move Furcal because of the injury questions and with the strong case Pete Kozma made hitting .333 with 10 XBH, 11 runs, and 14 RBI in 26 regular season games filling in for Furcal along with a strong postseason.  If Furcal is not hitting leadoff, the job will likely be given to John Jay who hit .303 in 52 games at the top spot.

Cubs

The Cubs may have the most dangerous baserunner in the league, but Tony Campana may not even have a starting job in 2013.  Campana stole 30 bases in 33 tries last season and is 54 for 59 (91.5%) in his career.  At the moment, rookie Brett Jackson is slated ahead of Campana in center field, which likely will give the leadoff spot back to right fielder David DeJesus.  DeJesus hit .264 with 28 2B, 8 3B, and led the team with 61 walks in 2012.  With Bryan LaHair being designated for assignment, DeJesus has the right field job barring further moves this offseason.  He does not give much of a threat on the bases however, only managing 7 successful steal attempts in 15 tries.

Pirates

The Pirates have a 2013 Rookie of the Year candidate that will likely be setting the table in Pittsburgh next year.  Starling Marte spent 37 of his 47 games in the leadoff spot and enjoyed great success: .285/.320/.486 with 6 3B, 5 HR, 10 SB, and 16 RBI.  When out of the top spot, Marte was only 2 for 23 with 1 run, 1 RBI, and 11 K.  Marte has all the tools to keep the spot as long as he keeps producing there.

Reds

One of the biggest stories this offseason comes from a player in the Cincinnati organization that has never played above AA.  The Reds leadoff spot saw no player hit over .223 (Zack Cozart) in 2012.  The team had high hopes for Drew Stubbs, but his strikeout total has kept him out of the leadoff spot.  He actually saw his lowest total with 166, but actually had a higher K rate (3.28 PA/K) than his career rate (3.41).  The saving grace for the Reds may exist in Billy Hamilton.  Between high-A and AA last season, Hamilton had an impressive slash line (.311/.410/.420) and scored 112 runs.  He really got national attention with his eye-popping 155 steals.  Even being caught 37 times, he still managed 80.7% efficiency.  If Billy Hamilton is finally ready to make the big leagues and set the table for Phillips, Votto, Bruce, and Frazier that will be a very dangerous addition for the team that won 97 games in 2012.  Hamilton has all the tools to be the biggest threat at the top of a batting order since Rickey Henderson.  The Reds are among the teams in the hunt for Michael Bourn, who would also be a dynamic start to that lineup.  There have also been talks of trade with one of their young shortstops, Cozart or Didi Gregorius, for a leadoff hitter, particularly Denard Span from Minnesota.  Another match for that trade would be Tampa Bay, who have a big hole at shortstop and may be willing to move Desmond Jennings.

Setting the Table in the NL East

The National League East caught a lot of people by surprise this year and had some great storylines throughout the season.  First and foremost, the Nationals had the best record in baseball with 98 wins and made an appearance in the playoffs for the first time in the Nationals/Expos franchise.  The Braves finished second and had a commanding lead in the wild card race, but with the institution of the second wild card team had to face off with the Cardinals in the one-game playoff. Their six-game lead fell by the wayside after a 6-3 loss to St. Louis.  The Phillies struggled mightily in the first half of the season (37-50), but managed to rally back to end the season .500 despite trading Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence at the deadline.  The Mets had a few feel-good stories throughout the season.  Johan Santana threw the first no-hitter in team history and R.A. Dickey had back-to-back one-hitters en route to winning the NL Cy Young Award.  The injury bug was alive and well in Queens, however, and the Mets only managed a fourth-place finish.  The Marlins were the biggest letdown in baseball after opening their new stadium and making big headlines by bringing in Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, and Mark Buehrle with their increased revenue and managed their worst record since 1999.  In the past few months, the Marlins have traded away 13 of their 14 highest paid players.  They will be a big storyline to follow this winter to see how they rebound after their severe disappointment in 2012.

Braves

With the loss of Michael Bourn, there is a big hole to fill both in center and at the top of Atlanta's lineup.  The Braves already made a move to bring back Jordan Schafer, who was the main piece in the trade that brought Bourn to Atlanta from Houston. Schafer has blazing speed, but in 2012 only mustered .211/.297/.294 in 104 games for the Astros and may not be ready to take on the leadoff role in 2013.  Martin Prado spent most of 2012 as the 2-hole hitter, but could fit at leadoff with his .300+ BA and .350+ OBP in 4 of his last 5 seasons.  Bourn was a great fit in Atlanta last year and would be the best option to bring back.  Victorino and his .341 career OBP would also fit well in front of the big bats of McCann, Uggla, Freeman, and Heyward.  Nate McLouth also has history in Atlanta and would be a less pricey option.

Marlins

The Marlins went from having two leadoff hitters and big questions elsewhere to having big questions everywhere including the leadoff spot.  They did get Yunel Escobar who spent some time leading off but only hit .216 from that spot.  Adeiny Hechavarria only has 41 MLB games under his belt, but showed leadoff-type numbers in the minors with 209 runs, 18 triples, and 41 steals over three seasons and three levels (A+, AA, and AAA).  Shortly after the trade with Toronto, the Marlins signed Juan Pierre to a one-year deal.  Pierre has hit 17 HR in 13 seasons, but has 591 SB in his career and stole 37 in 44 tries in 2012.  He also hit .346 in the first inning last season.  His most impressive stat may be his career strikeout rate of 17.6 PA/K.  He only has struck out 452 times compared to 451 walks.  At 34, he still has the tools to be a leadoff option on a team that needs one.  Now that so much payroll has been dropped by trading off Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Heath Bell, Reyes, Buehrle, and Johnson, Miami might be looking at making a few more moves this offseason. It remains to be seen what type of caliber of players the Marlins will target, but they had a lot of holes to fill even before this trade.  The Marlins could still be in the market for a high-level table setter, but they now have a solid option in Pierre.

Mets

Going into 2012, the Mets traded Angel Pagan to San Francisco for Andres Torres and reliever Ramon Ramirez.  Pagan won a World Series with the Giants and hit .288/.338/.440.  Torres only hit .230/.327/.337 and lost his leadoff job to Ruben Tejada early in the season.  Tejada performed much better in the spot and was third on the team in average at .289.  Going forward, the Mets have to ask if they are comfortable sticking with the combination of Tejada and Donnie Murphy at the top of the order.  If they decide to go out into the market for an upgrade, the most likely position would be a replacement in center for Torres.  They may look to bring back Pagan if the Giants decide to go elsewhere or maybe push up for Victorino.

Nationals

Washington had a fantastic season in 2012 with the most wins in the MLB (98) and not only their first division title, but their first playoff baseball of any kind.  This is even more remarkable when you factor in the injuries and lineup changes that they rolled with during the season. Mike Morse started the season on the DL.  Ryan Zimmerman hit the DL with a shoulder injury that he is having surgery on this offseason and also missed some time with back ailments.  Wilson Ramos saw his season end on May 13 with a torn ACL.  Jayson Werth had a wrist injury that kept him out of the lineup.  Ian Desmond missed some time with injury.  The top spot of the Nationals order also so a lot of changing and rolling with the punches.  There were four players that spent at least 25 games hitting first.  Ian Desmond was leading off to begin the season and hit .272 at the spot, but was moved to the 6-hole and bumped up to .316/.362/.532.  Steve Lombardozzi splashed onto the scene filling in for Morse, Werth, and Zimmerman.  Lombo played a team-high 58 games and put up a solid .273/.312/.367 batting first, but he will likely go back to his role of super-utility in 2013.  The Nationals found gold when the put Jayson Werth at the top.  With a career .362 OBP, Werth hit .309/.388/.450 setting the table for Harper, Zimmerman, Laroche and Morse.  Werth does not have the speed factor that is typical of a leadoff hitter, but he does steal bases with 86.7% efficiency in his career.  Even so, the Nationals may be in the market for a more typical leadoff hitter like Bourn, Victorino, or Pagan.

Phillies

Two big free agents are in the leadoff hitter pool that began 2012 in Philadelphia.  With Victorino and Juan Pierre out, the job falls exclusively on Jimmy Rollins.  The 2007 MVP has seen a decline in his numbers after that year, but his 2012 season saw some of his best numbers since.  J-Roll was 30 for 35 in SB and was back up to 23 HR and 102 runs (each most since 2007).  Rollins is still a premier leadoff man even going into his 34-year-old season.  The big fish the Phillies are trying to land this winter is BJ Upton.  They have not been quite about their very active pursuit to bring his right-handed power bat in to their lineup that is basically devoid of right-handed power.  Upton will likely fit better in the 3-hole, but has the speed to be used at leadoff.  The Phillies have also been noted as a main contender for Bourn.  It remains to be seen if they will try to land Bourn and Upton, but those would be two potent offensive additions to an aging lineup.  Another free agent to watch would be the return of Victorino.  It is still unknown if they would go after him or if he would want to come back to the team that sent him off at the deadline, but Philly has seen him effective in the leadoff spot before.

Setting the Table in the AL West

The American League West was arguably the best and most competitive division in baseball this season.  By comparison, the Tigers would have finished fourth, only above the Mariners, if they had been in the West this season.  The surprise Athletics were the talk of baseball after a strong September run allowed them to steal away the division crown from Texas on the final day of the season.  The Rangers led the division for the other 161 games, but fell to the Orioles in the wild card game after watching their lead slip away.  The Angels made serious waves last winter with the signings of Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson.  They were projected to finish among the league leaders, but only mustered third place despite having 89 wins.  It was the same old story in Seattle: it rained, it poured, and the Mariners did not score enough runs to keep above .500 despite another solid year for their pitching staff.  The Astros will be making the transition to the AL in 2013 after having the most losses in baseball in 2012.  They are rebuilding all around the diamond and have a lot of young faces that are looking to make fans learn the names to go with them.

Angels

What better place to begin than in Los Angeles, where Mike Trout had one of the greatest seasons ever and won AL Rookie of the Year as well as a strong second place for the AL MVP behind Miguel Cabrera and his Triple Crown.  In only 139 games, Trout led the majors in runs with 129 and steals with 49. He also added 30 HR and 83 RBI from the leadoff spot.  It can be said without question that the Angels have a fixture at the top of their order for many years to come.

Astros

The Astros are making the jump to the American League where runs come at a premium.  Not only that, but they have to keep pace with their hard-hitting, in-state rival Rangers.  The team with the most losses in the majors in 2012 have a lot of questions going into 2013 and the leadoff spot is one of them.  Jose Altuve showed a lot of promise at either the first or second spot in the order with .290/.340/.399 and 80 runs scored.  He also stole 33 bases and had 45 XBH.  They do have room to go for someone to hit ahead of Altuve, but he seems to be the logical leadoff man from within the organization at this point.  Of the available free agents, Nate McLouth seems to be a good fit with his combination of high OBP (4 of past 6 seasons .340+), XBH power (46 2B, 26 HR in 2008 with PIT), baserunning (career 86% SB Efficiency), and low price tag.

Athletics

There are some big questions in Oakland up and down their lineup.  There are a lot of jobs up for grabs and the leadoff spot may be affected by who wins them.  Coco Crisp has lots of experience leading off and has the main tools of speed (30+ SB in his 3 seasons in OAK) and getting on base (career .274/.329/.407).  However, it has yet to be determined if Crisp is going to start over Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, and new acquisition Chris Young.  Jemile Weeks saw a sophomore slump where he dropped from .303/.340/.421 in 97 games to a paltry .221/.305/.304 in 118 games.  He will have to fight to get his job back at second.  The A's also lost Stephen Drew to free agency and traded away Cliff Pennington in the trade for Young. This leaves an opening at shortstop, but the only leadoff option in the free agent market would be a reunion with Marco Scutaro who had career highs in average (.306 and .362 after the July 27 trade) as well as hits (190) and RBI (74) between Colorado and San Francisco.  He also went 14 for 28 with 4 RBI and 6 runs en route to the NLCS MVP.  Another interesting option would be a trade for Dee Gordon from the Dodgers. Gordon is coming off injuries that cut short his rookie season and now has former NL batting champion Hanley Ramirez in town vying for the shortstop job.  Gordon has the speed (56 SB and 72 runs in 143 career games), but has only 27 BB to 89 K and a .299 OBP.

Mariners

For years in Seattle the story has been the same: the Mariners need to score more runs.  Many of their young players showed promise in 2012.  Unfortunately, Dustin Ackley was not one of those players.  In his sophomore season, the 2009 2nd overall pick hit only .226/.294/.328 while spending the majority of the season leading off, especially after the trade of Ichiro Suzuki.  Ackley's best tool may be plate discipline, which would be the main reason he would stay at the top of the Mariners lineup.  Also, the Mariners do not have a viable replacement on their roster.  Michael Saunders has the baserunning ability, but led the team in strikeouts with 132.  Chone Figgins used to be a premier leadoff man for the Angels, but has had the worst three seasons of his career since coming to Seattle and it would be surprising if they do not cut bait to open a roster spot this winter.  The Mariners are not as likely to make a move for a top-of-the-order bat this offseason because their need lies more with the middle of the order for an impact, run-producing hitter.

Rangers

There really are no questions in Texas in the area of leadoff hitter.  Ian Kinsler spent every at-bat of his 2012 season in the top spot and had another productive year: .256/.326/.423 with 42 2B, 19 HR, 21 SB, 72 RBI, and 105 runs.  It is safe to say that whenever Kinsler is in the starting lineup, he will be listed at the top.  The Rangers could swap Elvis Andrus up from the 2-spot since he did hit for a tick in higher average and OBP, but why change the formula when it has been working so well?

Setting the Table in the AL Central

Happy Thanksgiving to all.  Between food, family, and football, I have found time to release part two of my analysis on leadoff hitters.  Moving across the American League, we come to a division that was picked to be a runaway and turned into a dogfight.  The Tigers signed Prince Fielder to replace the injured Victor Martinez and every prediction had them as a shoo-in to win the division.  The Royals had injuries to key players early in the season, but put together a solid second half.  The Twins found some offensive sparks in Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit, but struggled from the mound.  The Indians showed moments of brilliance, but also had an 11-game losing streak shortly before losing 15 of 16.  The White Sox surprised everyone, not only by giving the Tigers some competition in the division, but by leading the division for a large portion of the season.  The Tigers finally took the lead for good on September 26 and won the central by three games before fighting through the Athletics and Yankees and representing the American League in the World Series.  Each of these teams has concerns to address this offseason, but each team has pretty solid options to start the order.

Indians

Shin-Soo Choo really emerged as a force at the leadoff spot in Cleveland.  Choo hit .283/.373/.441 on the season, but tallied .310/.389/.493 in his 99 games hitting leadoff.  He also put up career highs with 43 2B and 88 runs scored.  Choo could fit anywhere from 1-5 in that order, so the Indians do have options with where to put him.  There are rumors about Cleveland shopping Choo this offseason.  Other options at leadoff would be Michael Brantley, Ezequiel Carrera, or Jason Kipnis, but with those gaudy numbers the job is really Choo's spot until he lets it go or the Indians let him go.

Royals

The top spot in Kansas City comes down to who is in the lineup on any given day.  Alex Gordon split time between first and third in the order and led the majors in doubles with 51.  Lorenzo Cain missed time with injuries to his groin, hip, and hamstring and was limited to only 61 games.  He did manage .266/.316/.419 when he was in the lineup.  Between filling in for Cain in center and pinch-running, Jarrod Dyson managed 30 steals and 52 runs in only 102 games.  Between Gordon, Cain, and Dyson, the Royals have a solid start to a lineup that has a lot of run-producing potential.

Tigers

Austin Jackson is a spark plug at the top of the AL Champion Tigers lineup.  He has hit 10+ 3B in all three ML seasons.  In 2012, he put up .300/.377/.479 – including a .331 clip in the 1st inning – and career highs with 16 HRs and 66 RBI in only 137 games.  Jackson is a premier leadoff man and a cornerstone piece of the Detroit ball club.

Twins

When discussing leadoff hitters, the stereotype is a diminutive, slap-hitting, base-stealer.  Denard Span fits all of those descriptions.  He has been the Twins leadoff hitter most of his 5-year career.  There have been talks of trading him, especially to the Reds.  If Span gets moved, Ben Revere and his very similar skill set well likely take over the leadoff duties as well as Span's spot in center field.

White Sox

Chicago found a real diamond in the rough in the former Rule 5 pick that they claimed off waivers in 2009.  Alejandro De Aza took over the top spot in the White Sox order this year and put up solid numbers (.281/.349/.410) ahead of the potent run-producers Konerko and Dunn.  As a result, De Aza scored 81 runs.  As long as he continues producing, he will remain in the spot.

Setting the Table in the AL East

This offseason there are a lot of questions with how teams are going to set the table in 2013.  Michael Bourn is a free agent and a game-changing player at the leadoff spot.  There are many different shades of leadoff around baseball from the slap-hitting base-stealer to the Billy Beane classic that just gets on base.  A pure leadoff hitter like Bourn is hard to come by, but a lot of teams are making due with some less-than-typical players.  Over the next week, I will be breaking down each team, the options they currently have to leadoff, and who they may be in the market for this offseason.  My last post (pending moves over the week, as I have already had to edit for the Toronto/Miami deal and the signings of Juan Pierre and Melky Cabrera) will analyze the available free agents and players that may be on the trade block.

The AL East was, as always, a focal point in baseball this season.  The Red Sox struggled along with injuries en route to their worst winning percentage since 1965.  In their stead, the Orioles gave the Yankees all the competition they could handle and wound up a game short, beat Texas in the wild card game, and lost to the Yankees in the ALDS in five games.  Toronto has already been making big moves this offseason and has been mentioned as a frontrunner in the division next year.  The Yankees have some questions this winter between free agents and aging players.  The one team in the East that really had a virtual lock at leadoff coming into the offseason is the Rays.

Blue Jays

With the first blockbuster trade of the winter, the Blue Jays got themselves two premier leadoff hitters to set the table for their potent run-producers.  Jose Reyes has another solid season in 2012 at .287/.347/.433 and is one of the best in baseball.  The Jays also have the option to hit Reyes second behind Emilio Bonifacio.  The speedster saw his 2012 season shortened by two thumb injuries and a knee injury.  Even so, Bonifacio stole 30 bases in 33 attempts and in only 64 games.  Bonifacio provides some utility, spending time at 2B, 3B, SS, and all three outfield positions during his four seasons in Miami.  The Jays will have to assess his health and where he fits in the defensive alignment to see if he will play every day and potentially leadoff or be their super-utility and pinch-running threat.  No longer after completing the megadeal, the Blue Jays also landed Melky Cabrera for the top of their order. Cabrera was leading the NL in batting average at .346 before he was suspended 50 games for testing positive for testosterone.  Cabrera also had a career year in Kansas City with 201 hits, 102 runs, 44 doubles, 18 homers, 87 RBI, and 20 stolen bases.  He will likely hit behind Reyes and ahead of the power in that order, though hitting Cabrera #2 will drop Lawrie down to #6 or #7.

Orioles

The Orioles thought they had their leadoff problem figured out for a long time in Brian Roberts.  The switch-hitting second baseman is a .280 career hitter with four straight years of 30+ steals (2006-09) and three straight years of 100+ runs (2007-09).  However, injuries have kept Roberts to only 115 games over the past three seasons combined.  In his stead, the Orioles used six other players.  Endy Chavez and Nate McLouth are both free agents.  Nolan Reimold is coming off season-ending neck injury.  Robert Andino has been shipped off to Seattle for outfielder Trayvon Robinson.  Xavier Avery may not be starting next year behind Reimold, Nick Markakis, and Adam Jones.  Markakis got the most at-bats at leadoff and hit .335/.390/.489, but has spent most of his career hitting 2-4.  If the O's land a middle-of-the-lineup bat – they have been rumored to be actively pursuing Josh Hamilton – then it would free up Markakis to hit leadoff.  They could also re-sign McLouth or Endy Chavez for left field and leadoff.

Rays

Desmond Jennings came into 2012 with big expectations to be a dangerous leadoff hitter.  Jennings did not disappoint on the bases (31 of 33 stealing bases), but his .246/.314/.388 performance at the plate was a little lackluster.  Heading forward into 2013, Jennings will still be heading up the Rays order that has some big holes behind him with the departure of BJ Upton and Carlos Pena.  If he can get on base at a higher rate, he has the potential to be one of the most dynamic leadoff hitters in the game.

Red Sox

No injury was felt as deeply for the Red Sox as Jacoby Ellsbury.  Coming off his MVP runner-up campaign in 2011, Ellsbury only managed 74 games and caused a revolving door of fill-ins in at leadoff: Mike Aviles, Pedro Ciriaco, Daniel Nava, and Scott Podsednik.  If Ellsbury can stay healthy, he is a potential MVP and one of the most impactful hitters in all of baseball.  When he is out of the lineup, the Red Sox have a big hole to fill at the top of their order.  They very well could be in the market for outfield depth and a player who can lead off if Ellsbury misses more time.  Boston could be in the market for McLouth or Chavez for depth after their injury-ridden outfield in 2012.

Yankees

We end this list in the Bronx where Derek Jeter flew under the radar (amazingly enough) with his effective hitting at the top of the Yankee order.  The Captain hit an amazing .364/.392/.550 in the first inning in 2012.  Even at 38 years old, Jeter led the majors in hits.  The big question is the ankle injury that he suffered in the ALCS.  If Jeter misses time, the Yankees do have Curtis Granderson, who hit leadoff for the Tigers before the 3-team blockbuster deal that swapped him for Jackson.  Granderson has also scored 100+ runs and driven in 100+ runs in each of the past two seasons.  They also have Brett Gardner, who missed most of 2012 with right elbow surgery, but is regarded as one of the fastest players in baseball.  The Yankees are also the most logical team to re-sign Ichiro Suzuki after his high production after his trade to New York from Seattle.  Ichiro will also likely be asking for a high salary figure that the Yankees will be among the few able and willing to match.